About Peak Oil and possible $20 oil.

The following is copy of a comment.

The peak oil concept still applies, but we have several overlapping over the paradigm shifts we got. First, we increased extraction rates from 20% max. to 30%, then even to 65%. (and the 65% figure is from what looks like a standard, solid sandstone!) So, old fieds produced new oil (see the 1970’s chart on peak oil). Then we made new discoveries on how to get oil from what is basically a rock-coal, the shale. Then we got supercomputers which allowed us to prospect the impossible, rock several miles under the bottom of the sea, where the sea bottom itself is 1 to 1.5 miles deep!

The cost of doing so is obvious, in the deepest wells currently, 3 oil giants are using shared equipment because of the costs and technical difficulty. The water pressure at the bottom is some 220 bars (atmospheres), that is 22 MPa.

In other words, it is more complicated than just one hump of peak oil. But now the energy conservation efforts andrenewables added to the mix as well, at the same time as major economic malaise of 2008. And whatis even more, for the first time in the past 5000 years, economic growth decoupled from fuel consumption. Now take 3 minute pause to meditate over the last fact.

Now, 3 minutes later, do you see the bigger picture? Thebigger picture is that situation changes into distincly different eras. Your analysis concerning inflation is definitely correct and very important in any long term analysis.

But we are dealig with the fact that everything changes. There used to be days when oil was used exclusively for heating, transport, electricity, light, and as precursor to 50% of all products. 2008-2016 is the era when major notches habe been cut into all of these areas (apart of the light, which had been a while ago). So the monopoly thatthe oil held over the economy weakened. And you know how a stock of a company can plummet when all the good aspects of the company were only in the fact that it had monopoly.

In other words also: the great opportunity to make amazing profits on oil are gone, both onthe market and in the production. The price and production movements will be different. And as someone else noted: ‘I noticed that we can’t consume even a fraction of the coal we have, if we are to limit the CO2 emissionsthe way we have to.’ Long ago, I noticed that our energy consumption was growingso much that in 2020-2050 it would be the same as the energy delivered to the planet by the Sun itself. That obviously can’t happen for the sake of our survival. But also, it affects how we see individual fields, companies, producers.


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