Why Tesla motors + Solarcity makes sense.

An analyst on Bloomberg laughed at the combination, but I say it makes very much sense, because:

  1. Both are in a high growth potential industry
  2. Both are in the same segment — renewable energy, electricity generation and storage
  3. There is absolutely no way of reaching renewable energy targets without growing the transport and storage infrastructure by an order or orders of magnitude!
  4. Only other option is to consume the produced (renewably-sourced) energy locally.
  5. USA leads a car-centered suburban lifestyle, which fits this combination nicely.
  6. The amount of energy consumed by transportation is 7x over that of the electric network itself. So TSLA + Solarcity has still a lot of room to grow into.
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The fate of MH370 again…

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37843752

“MH370: Report suggests flight was not preparing for landing”

My original analysis still stands, still and still as good as ever. How? The voice recording of last communication was most likely the SECOND pilot, he sounded as he looked when boarding, very laid-back and …he forgot the protocol, and when the tower said something to him, instead of reporting he was like: “OK, yea”.

The main pilot was K.O. from the beginning, he looked like he didn’t sleep in a decade. It is entirely possible that during the flight he has been in a sleep-like trance, the same way as he looked when he was boarding.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26610946

You know what we need? Brain activity monitor for pilots and navigators. We need the plane to recognize a problem and take over when necessary. We need pilot brain activity reports over the satellite. Just a simple scoring system on the scale of “brain-dead” to “totally hyped”. If we make this global, you would see which airlines are most at risk.

Egypt Air flight MS804 analysis

OK, original post deleted. There is a question how conscious the pilots were at the moment of the disaster… were they even there?

00:26Z

  • 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
  • 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
  • SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE

00:27Z

  • 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE

00:28Z

  • 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR

00:29Z

  • 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
  • 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT

So, errors are: cockpit right window defroster error, ventilation sliding window… dare I say open or not closed correctly? Could it be that the co-pilot tried to adjust the window to get rid of some smell he could sense? The same smell was picked by some of the lavatory smoke detectors. Next minute, smoke is detected in the avionics compartment.

Next minute, the fixed cockpit window detects an error status.

Next minute, the autopilot flight control unit 2 is faulty and flight control “SEC 3”, sector 3 is faulty.

The maneuver the plane made could be caused by the autopilot unit itself, possibly…

I still do not know if decompression errors are detected and reported as well.

Tsugumi Ohba identity

This is a serious topic. You shall immediately recognize the connection between Ohba, Tsugumi and Ryuuk, the first page shows you a black silouette holding an apple. Ryuuk LOVES apples as well. Ohba looks like a rocker, with vastly larger/wider torso than legs, but we’ve seen women on that body type as well, it looked a bit unnatural. If this were in EDO, I’d noticed a pronounced chin as well. But I’m no Sakata Gintoki, so I don’t mind.

 

The story runs in real time with the publication, characters have birth dates and live and die in real time with the publication of the story in Shonen Jump. Other noticeable thing are the shoes and legs of “L”, in chapter 2, page 7, there are several scenes based on photos, and these shoes and legs tell me the same thing: Ryuuk or some kind of a rocker. There is also one rocker on the team who made music for the Death Note, named Taniuchi Hideki, there is a weak connection between him and Hideki Ryuuga, just by the name and the photo in chapter 2, page 7. I’d have to look into him deeper later.

 

Ryuuk is dressed, sits, stands in a position like a rocker, dressed in leather. The wide shoulders, thinner abdomen also force him to sit/stand like this. This analysis is only valid IF Takeshi Obata, the illustrator knows Tsugumi Ohba personally, in person. Since those two did the Bakuman series, which is about two boys who decide to make a blockbuster manga series from scratch, I think it is entirely possible they’ve know each other personally for a long, long time.

So, what is with this cute, girlish identity of Tsugumi Ohba? Is it a character created by a man, or is it his alter ego in the virtual space? Or is it really a woman? The only hard evidence is to meet in person. But from what I’m seeing with an eye unclouded, I think that Tsugumi Ohba has an assigned gender at birth as a MALE, but has developmental and mental features not purely masculine, likes to get lost in thought, and has ‘androgyne’ features. *note: I am using that word only on the basis on being told about someone to be an androgyne*

 

If this were the Edo in Gintama A.D., I’d look for Tsugumi Ohba in the Saito bar in Kabukichou. But I’d have to go trough all the people even vaguely related to Takeshi Obata. I can assume that Tsugumi Ogba is between 170-190cm tall and the characters of L and Ryuuk have been loosely based on him. Quiet and thoughtful when in the thinking mode, cheerful and childish when in love. Unusually long hair, white face, prominent, long chin, some facial hair growth, slender, thin arms and legs. White face is made more prominent with dark pigmentation under the eyes. Language knowledge and thinking skills: we can assume that understanding of English is at some useful level, but has consumed a LOT of literature in the japanese language.

So, Tsugumi Ohba, I will find you, I will hunt you down, and I’ll invite you for tea and CAKE. Lots of good cake. And chocolate. Chocolate with ginger.

Bacterial smells, odorants

EDIT: This article proves to be very popular, I will append it in the future.

  1. streptococcus milleri — browned butter
  2. pseudomonas aeruginosa — flowery, sickly sweet, “concord grapes”, naphtalene-like, grape candy
  3. clostridium difficile — horse excrement, heinous smell
  4. proteus sp. — sweet, corn tortilla smell, ‘masculine notes’
  5. actinomyces sp. — wet earth smell after rain
  6. flavobacterium odoratum, alcaligenes faecalis — ‘fruity’
  7. alcaligenes odorans — ‘fresh cut apple’
  8. streptomyces — ‘dirt cellar’
  9. cyanobacteria, actinomyces — geosmin, ‘potting soil’
  10. source
  11. streptococcus pneumoniae — methyl methacrylate up to 1420 ppb! (Methyl methacrylate, that is what is used to manufacture acrylic plexiglass, also used in dentistry, you absolutely should know this chemical! Basically, if you smell this on the lung breath (among other things), act fast, direct your ‘hits’.)
  12. staph sp., corynebacterium sp. and 100 others — sulphur odours
  13. choline metabolism –> trimethylamine
  14. dimethyl disulfide, sludge –> lactobacillus, corynebacterium, pseudomonas acidovorans, pseudomonas alcaligenes, preudomonas pseudoalcaligenes, pseudomonas testosteroni, Alcaligenes denitrificans subsp. xylosoxydans, Alcaligenes denitrificans subsp. denitrificans, Alcaligenes faecalis, Alcaligenes odorans, Achromobacter group Vd, source
  15. dimethyl sulfide, nature –> Pseudomonas spp., Streptomyces, Bacterium spp., Aspergillus spp., Clostridium sporogenes, Alteromonas putrefaciens, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Achromobacter spp., Pseudomonas putida, Proteus spp., Pseudomonas fluorescens, Proteus vulgaris, Serratia marcescens, source

“Anaerobes are particularly pungent due to their reliance on sulfhydryl compounds to maintain redox balance.”

grape, sweet aroma: 2-Aminoacetophenone

NOTE HERE: notice that sickly sweet-ish aromas may be also products of not only purely bacterial “fermentation” (in the generic sense of the word), but also a combination of human pheromones, scent glands (oiling glands on specific body locations), the mentioned microbially processed aforementioned excretions, or these may be even pure, unaltered scents. (Remember how sweetly baby heads smell? Those are hormones/pheromones and fatty acids in action, the smell itself can alter human emotions/actions, so we can argue humans do have a pheromone/scent gland system, even if it is marginal.)

16. butyric acid and butyrates… you know this smell all too well. Easily located in dental plaques, it is many times the product of fusobacterium nucleatum, you better learn to recognize this smell quickly, it is very unique smell, even if not unique to this bacteria. The butyric acid is an irritant and among other bacterial products helps to damage cell walls (bleeding, shriveled gums, anyone?). Fusobacterium nucleatum is a “bridge” bacteria, it provides the biofilm framework on which plethora of others, even pretty dangerous ones will operate. Don’t bother throwing antibiotics at it, this bacteria works differently; as it consumes proteins for all its energy needs, protease inhibitors will lead to cell death. I heard that Bestatin might be very efficient. As this bacteria is not motile, very conscientious physical clean-up of plaques, followed by surface sterilisation (like very weak solution of AgNO3), may trigger rapid wound healing, as this bacteria stops *forgot the name of the progenitor cells that facilitate healing” from working. Also some tumors need this bacteria to operate, so eradicating in on the spot may make the tumour to die away on its own. Link: Bacteria and tumours: causative agents or opportunistic inhabitants?

17: propionic acid: I do not have separate info right now, so assume the above is valid as well, when these acids are present in significant quantities, assume that bacteria able to permanently colonize mouth is present.

Leave comments, pls.

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Flydubai FZ981

Boeing 737-800, similar case as the Air Malaysia lost over the Indian ocean, and even the Lufthansa A320 depressed pilot. Air Malaysia had two pilots, old one, tired and possibly depressed (see the video of them going trough checks, he had a lack-of-sleep hangover or something like that) and young one, who looked okay.

THE THEORY. There is something in the airplanes themselves that affects the psychological state of the pilots. We already know these in the list:

  1. changing time zones, long hours , irregular sleep, demanding lifestyle
  2. long periods of decreased air/oxygen pressure
  3. fumes from the APU(such as), fumes from the electronics, carpets
  4. electrolyte balance, saltiness taste changes at lower air pressure

The third one is still the most acute of the three, and as the fumes contain mainly nerve poisons, it needs to be seriously evaluated as an occupational hazard and safety hazard.

Altered state of thinking: lack of sleep and lowered air pressure alone are enough to alter perception and judgement. People ask: “why were they circling for 2 hours and not diverting?” Let me tell you that when your immune system, energy and oxygen delivery into brain snaps, sitting 2 hours doing nothing and waiting will fly past as if it were 15 minutes. Been there. The Air France that crashed in the Atlantic after slowly losing altitude over long period of time is another example. Record shows them reacting slowly, confusedly, during a night and after a good dinner.

The Flydubai FZ981 plane went down in a very steep dive. In the hours before that, their conversations with the tower were trivial, almost as preschoolers.

What I think additionally needs to be done is to prepare meals suitable for high altitude consumation, vitamins promoting neuroprotection and proper neurological function (about 5 or 6 B-vitamins and such), and medication improving the use of oxygen, nutrients from time to time. (Mildronate from the Sharapova fiasco, or substances from the same “Actoprotector” class.)

And the whole concept of air supply and filtering into airplanes needs to be rethought. Possibly oxygen enrichment, even. (25% oxygen) These tragedies are 100% preventable in the design and preparation phase. Commercial airlines lack the physical, nutritional and mission preparation typical for  U-2 pilots. Such procedures would decrease tragic accidents, but would be hard to implement, even partially.

EDIT: As is shown time and time again, rest for the pilots needs to be provided. If you really make them work in 14-16 hour stretches, give them the ability to roam on the plane and sleep there in shifts as well. That was one of the perks in the 1950’s and 1960’s, pilots left and returned to the cockpit as they pleased. It would be easier if you employed 3 pilots instead of 2, but that is no company willing to do. I wonder why.

On the usefulness of economic interventions and theories.

State interventions, yes or no? Economic stimulus, yes or no? Support for ailing companies, yes or no? Support for start-ups, yes or no?

Much of the economic theory revolves around these kinds of questions, while one is strictly for artificial stimulation or changes, the other is strictly against.

I have made several discoveries that make clear in this matter. It also, at the same time, explains how corruption harms the economy by unfair economical advantage and how fair economical advantage supports and builds the economy for the long term.

[This document was written in several parts which may not be joined seamlessly, so in this intermezzo, I’d like to declare that I appreciated the analyses done by Stephanie Flanders in the past, some were real eye openers for the rich strategic view and proper questions asked. To balance that, I have to say that as much as I am amazed by what she has said and written, I am utterly confused by her personal life and physique.]

 

What is The Economy and The Markets? It is the average of all the individuals participating in it. So, the economy literally IS what people are buying and creating. And what happens when you bring into the market a product and services that nobody asks for and that nobody needs? It does not help the economy grow, prosper, function.

Now imagine you are some kind of a government minister. You steal, say 20 million and spend it on a grand project of a luxury car dealership that in the end gets very little visitors. Your common poor citizens certainly don’t visit it with their puny cars. As far as the economy goes, the money was essentially wasted. And the money was taken from the taxpayers who could have used it to support the economy by making many small purchases, giving jobs and employment further in the economic foodchain. In this and similar cases, you see how corruption harms the economic growth of a country.

Another case are grand projects, whether they are massively overpriced or not. When these projects are made because of just a wish or as a dream of someone in charge, without sound economic analysis of the current and future needs and developments in the economy, these projects are not going to help, and compared to the situation where the money and material would be spent by the average way of the economic participants, much worse.

A beautiful case was the era of around 2003 to 2008.

[insert stick-figure chart of SP&500]

There is a solid empirical (and theoretical) basis on observing the markets as a series of processes, which need to happen, whether you like it or not. Whether you subscribe to a specific school of thinking is now not important (like Elliott waves for example), what is important is the recognition that market trends exist and alternate. Boom-bust, bull-bear, bubble-crash. In the 1990’s a new era started, era of the Personal Computer, era of the Internet and the prospect of an “internet-based economy”, the whole topic and prospects were ‘uncharted’, but everyone knew that this would play a major role in the future. In the rise to the peak around 2000, you see the process of value of S&P 500 companies going up. Then a corrective motion appears where the first wave of interest vanes and some bad investments are weeded out. The economy as whole re-adjusts and NEEDS re-adjusting to this new paradigm. Why? The shift was severe, the consumers changed habits and products consumed, the industry faced challenge of people not needing or wanting only physical items. And with it a new idea of economic growth independent of energy consumption was created. If your business wanted a firm footing in the FUTURE, it had better be independent of oil. [Idea first floated by Stephanie Flanders.]

And now, notice the weird anomaly that looks so unnatural in the slow wave moving on the S&P 500 chart. What is it? It is the bull market of around 2003 to around 2008 and the subsequent crash. How was it made? Artificially. Much was said and written in the era from 1999 to 2004 about economic malaise and need for deep economic reforms and then “how Bush administration is pulling your attention from it by foreign relations” and subsequent forcible stimulation of the OLD economic principles by increased wasteful consumption, reckless spending on energy-intensive processes like war and war machines. Instead of explaining all, world oil consumption in a large time frame shows it all. The era of around 2003-2008 has a noticeable bias (shift) upwards for the era, which returns to the mean and stays at the mean afterwards.

[insert oil consumption (purely world oil consumption, not price or deliveries)]

This is very interesting. Basically, the data tells the same story: if you try to avoid the changes that are absolutely necessary for the future, you can delay them, but the need for the change will stay. You can even create a new paradigm (the way how things work), but it will not be sustainable. The changes the world economy (I am saying here: the participants of the world economy) is going trough will catch up with non-compliant economies and hit hard.

 

So my educated answer to the endless dispute of regulation, economic stimulus and forced changes to the economy is: it can do harm as well as help. For any such changes to the system to work well, it must be done in the direction of the flow and in the direction of the real future conditions of the needs of the drivers (customers, spenders, creators who supply desired goods). A bad example that harms the economy is a blind attempt to “spend your way out of the recession”, when the economic malaise happened because some deep structural reforms are very badly needed. That was exactly the case of Bush era presidency, and as the stick figure chart of the S&P500 index shows, it was unnatural, reinforced the old bad habits of the economic participants and as a result, the reforms that forced itself upon us in the big crash were hitting much harder than they would if they either happened naturally or would be introduced as these were needed.

My advice? Reinforce the good habits in the economy by as little as possible and let the natural competitiveness weed out the inefficient ones. Only rarely you should tell someone to quit, and even that at best in desire for him to seek alternatives or more efficient uses of what he does. If you need to employ workers inefficiently, make sure they do find other positions as soon as these become available. If there is corruption, make sure it sucks less than 0.1% GDP and even then it must be spend wisely and locally.

Did you enjoy the reading? Pictures coming later.

About Peak Oil and possible $20 oil.

The following is copy of a comment.

The peak oil concept still applies, but we have several overlapping over the paradigm shifts we got. First, we increased extraction rates from 20% max. to 30%, then even to 65%. (and the 65% figure is from what looks like a standard, solid sandstone!) So, old fieds produced new oil (see the 1970’s chart on peak oil). Then we made new discoveries on how to get oil from what is basically a rock-coal, the shale. Then we got supercomputers which allowed us to prospect the impossible, rock several miles under the bottom of the sea, where the sea bottom itself is 1 to 1.5 miles deep!

The cost of doing so is obvious, in the deepest wells currently, 3 oil giants are using shared equipment because of the costs and technical difficulty. The water pressure at the bottom is some 220 bars (atmospheres), that is 22 MPa.

In other words, it is more complicated than just one hump of peak oil. But now the energy conservation efforts andrenewables added to the mix as well, at the same time as major economic malaise of 2008. And whatis even more, for the first time in the past 5000 years, economic growth decoupled from fuel consumption. Now take 3 minute pause to meditate over the last fact.

Now, 3 minutes later, do you see the bigger picture? Thebigger picture is that situation changes into distincly different eras. Your analysis concerning inflation is definitely correct and very important in any long term analysis.

But we are dealig with the fact that everything changes. There used to be days when oil was used exclusively for heating, transport, electricity, light, and as precursor to 50% of all products. 2008-2016 is the era when major notches habe been cut into all of these areas (apart of the light, which had been a while ago). So the monopoly thatthe oil held over the economy weakened. And you know how a stock of a company can plummet when all the good aspects of the company were only in the fact that it had monopoly.

In other words also: the great opportunity to make amazing profits on oil are gone, both onthe market and in the production. The price and production movements will be different. And as someone else noted: ‘I noticed that we can’t consume even a fraction of the coal we have, if we are to limit the CO2 emissionsthe way we have to.’ Long ago, I noticed that our energy consumption was growingso much that in 2020-2050 it would be the same as the energy delivered to the planet by the Sun itself. That obviously can’t happen for the sake of our survival. But also, it affects how we see individual fields, companies, producers.

Will some evil AI destroy us all?

Elon Musk fears that AI could turn against humans. And I say: Why Not?
Think about it. Humans already put into practice deep industrial scale espionage of other humans on a personal basis, collecting their records, photos, identifying them in uploaded photos, keeping their deleted nonsensical utterings forever. Doesn’t matter that you deleted your profile or e-mail accout. Somebody still owns it and plans on using it.

If the above sounds disgusting, think about what an AI would do after finding such storage of limitless information. It is reasonable to assume it would decide it would be in everybodys best interest that it would rule the humans. It is only very logical.

Now if you haven’t seen Colossus: The Forbin Project, you need to see it. As I am experienced in this area, it carried little real surprise for me, to me it all looked just very logical and completely reasonable. But it was entertaining to see the reaction of the affected humans.

The same way, humans now act as if they were an evil AI themselves, all suspicious, all scheming and plotting, all full of hatred and rivalry… don’t you think that a machine would excel in those areas better?

What I’m saying and what can not be avoided is that humanity deserves to get something for what it does. The funny thing is that we actively work on meeting our fate, just like the man who tried to escape to his relatives to Samara, to seek safety from the Death. Death didn’t even know what hit her, so surprised she was.